Posted: Wednesday, October 28, 2009 - 0 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]
Category: Other
 DRESSED TO PLAY by JACK DOG WELCH

A possibly accurate historical narrative from the archives of the Wild Dog.

 

Woke up feeling too ugly to puke, so I biked down to some schoolyard
backboards to shoot hoops.  The action stopped the moment I walked
through the tall mesh wire fence.   Like they'd never seen an old white
guy before.

Raised my hand.  "Next," I said.

They were a man short.   So, we went a little three-on-three. Half-court,
of course.  Played this studly dude, muscles, mid-twenties, about my height,
played him to a standstill.  I mean, his muscles had muscles, and, well, I am being surprisingly humble
here, I shut him down.  I ruled. 

Poked him - his name was Johnny Joe - in the back of the head with a wild
elbow early and that seemed to clear some space.   I need my space.  
Apologized right away.

I actually threw an alley-oop for an assist.   To be honest, it was a little below the
rim. Stuffed a shot.   Swished a long jumper.  Boxed out the leapers for a bound.  
A soaring tap-in. Forced turnovers.   Et cetera.  Unselfish.   Made the extra pass.   Combine some good luck and
pesky in-your-chest defense and you get a small taste of my all-around incredible performance.  
          I play D like a junkyard dog.

 As you can well imagine, this was all very exciting.   I was unconscious.  
In a zone. Tripping really.   Like, oh wow, man, did I just throw up a 20-footer
in a gnarly cross-wind or what?   Please, dear God...   Breeze caught the ball,
which took an erratic s-route heading toward the hoop.   Like a long putt.

Is it short?  Good!!   Yes.  All net, too.

"Nice shot." Couldn't tell if he was being facetious. 

"Thanks," I said.

 

 I hadn't actually played against anybody worth a damn in a couple of years.  
Probably more.  I'm fifty, weak back, bad knees, one kidney and no health
insurance.   I used to be a fine athlete.  Today I play basketball like it was in
slow motion.   Don't exactly explode to the hole.  When I was fast, I was slow,
to tell you the truth.

I practice hoops as The Way.   Akido in the sun.  Just a series of movements,
smooth and flowing, more like a dance than anything else.  Mostly by myself.  
Tossing the ball through the net, working on my cross-over dribble, stretching.  
I've got a hoop just nine-feet high above the landlord's garage door, where
I like to work on my power moves and reverse slam dunks.  

This one morning, I don't know what came over me, I turned up the speed.  
Not that I really moved faster, just I always seemed to know right where to be.  
Found my body perfectly trained to do whatever I wanted.  Ran a confidence
games on these kids.   Started accidentally to talk a little trash.  Just poking
a little fun.  You know me, I can get a little competitive.

So, I says to the guy, "Hey, Johnny Joe, a little quiet today, aren't you?"  
I could tell he was getting flustered.  All that brawn and, the best part,
not a mean bone in his body.

"Can't get the ball the way you're covering me," he mumbled.  
Oh, yeah: made me feel good.
 

At about that instant, I stuck my hand into the passing lane and stole the ball.  
We won by two. I couldn't help but notice how cordial everybody was.  
Most places I've been, Portland's Willamette Athletic Club being
the worst in a non-fatal way, there's dirty, unnecessarily rough action,
cheating, arguments, nasty language and, not infrequently, fisticuffs
among combatants who seem to think forty minutes of lunch hour rat ball
is the mother of all games.   Mostly divorced divorce attorneys arguing
like the contest is important and they'd bet their peckers on the outcome.  
Not what I call 'play.'

These ghetto guys, young blacks, had been actually sharing in
the game.  A pass, a rebound, a steal, a basket, a mistake, an effort,
virtually anything the players didwas greeted with high fives and
supportive words.  Good natured jokes.   They were enjoying life.  
I patted butt and decided to quit before they figured out my last
two remaining moves. Before my luck ran out.
 

What must these guys be thinking, I wondered, as I beat one after another
and they let me go by them unmolested.   I felt like some invincible movie star
in an improbable sports film.  I was wearing padded black cycling shorts.  Works
like Kirk Douglas' girdle.    Pads my skinny butt and pushes my already
trim tummy up into my chest.  Giving me a burly yet V-shaped torso.   My
long dark hair and dripping sweat held back by a bright red bandanna and
a gold hoop earring glinting next to a demonically rakish salt and pepper beard.
 I had a blood-stained elbow pad on my left arm and a pair of  seen-better-days
1984-issue white Italian leather
Magic Johnson low-cuts on my feet.  Floppy socks.

The coup de gras of my costume is this perfectly faded black t-shirt I found
laying in the dirt, outside a typically grungy cracker-class laundromat in Carrabelle,
way up in the Florida Panhandle.  The Redneck Riviera.

On the front of the shirt is a screaming, bleeding skull with a huge knife
slammed through it and bright red blood splashing like a bucket of gore
splattered across my chest. Scrawled in the same blood-red color, above the skull,
is a bold headline... KILL 'EM ALL.

LET GOD SORT 'EM OUT, below the skull.
 

On the road, everybody takes you at face value.   So, there I was,
playing ball like Charles Barkley on a good day, looking like some crazed
middle-aged outlaw biker with a lengthy prison record.

And nobody disrespected me.


On the road, 1995

Posted: Sunday, October 25, 2009 - 3 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]
Category: Other
 We can complain because rose bushes have thorns, or rejoice because thorn bushes have roses. - Abraham Lincoln
 
I am trying to make the move to PLO.  I understand the increased variance.  I understand sample size.  Even at my advanced age, however, I wonder how anybody can make the transition when you NEVER win as a 65-35 favorite. 
I do, however, understand how my opponents are enjoying the game as they get their money in bad and still win.  What fun it must be for them.
The wife and I have been discussing luck all week.  She survived her surgery, but has a hole in her stomach, which refuses to heal.  Is luck survival?  Is luck not needing the operation?  Is luck no hole in her stomach?
How do we compare luck?  Do we compare vis a vis those less fortunate or those more fortunate?
Mrs. JackDog and I agree.  Where health is concerned, we compare against those less fortunate.
I may have a bad back, but I can walk... there are people in wheelchairs, people without legs.
This past winter, following the flu, then pneumonia, then a painful fall, I suffered a deep veinous thrombosis, basically a blood clot the length of my leg.  After five days in the hospital and then many more days in my recliner, I was feeling a little miserable about feeling miserable for two months. 
Why me, Lord??
     I understand I am lucky to have not suffered a stroke.  I understand I am 'lucky' to have health insurance. But...
      My roommate in the hospital has been sick for most of the last 31 years.  When he wasn't sick, he was in an auto accident or getting divorced or losing his job. Michael is 51-years-old and a wonderful man.  Six weeks in the hospital this time, because his latest operation was botched.  He weighs 113 lbs.
      Later, I was at the doctor's office for blood monitoring and I met a 57-year-old man who's been sick for 10 years.  He has two different forms of incurable cancer (currently in remission) and a host of other problems, the solution to one of which was castration.
      Suddenly, I was feeling pretty good about myself.  You might say, I was feeling rather lucky.
      Where poker is concerned, however, we compare against more fortunate, don't we?   
I may be a break-even player after years of serious dedication, but I haven't hit the big score or the long winning run or the bad beat jackpot or...?
      We look at these kids just barely old enough to get into a casino winning pots the size of a new car.  Or two. TV pros are winning prizes the size of a mansion.  Or two.
Luckychewy has $127,000 in cash in his backpack, for chrissakes!!!
      Every online poker community has its Bad Beat forum.  Why are there no Suck Out forums?  Because a Suck Out forum would be comparing us to the less fortunate.  Rare is the poker player who looks at the unlucky and tells himself how fortunate he is by comparison.
    I keep telling myself I am on the verge of a major breakthrough.  If I can avoid drunk-tilt and depression-tilt, luck really won't much matter. Because I am so lucky compared to the 90% of poker players who don't win.  Or even break even.
      And I think we should start posting our Suck Outs.
 
Every mule thinks his load is the heaviest. - Abraham Lincoln
 
Posted: Wednesday, October 21, 2009 - 4 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]
 I came across what follows as I cleansed my computer.  The material originates with a Full Tilt Poker pro, whose name did not get recorded.  The info comes from late 2006, but I am guessing the advice remains applicable at most of the levels we currently play.  Content has been, of course, artfully re-written for clarity.

    Re-buy tournaments require an entire stylistic shift that seems to make a lot of players uncomfortable. Generally, the players who get the most perplexed or bothered by the re-buy structure are the ones who don't come prepared to take a few thin gambles during the re-buy period, or who maintain the delusion that buying in for just one or two buy-ins is the best strategy.
    While it may be possible to execute a limited buy-in strategy with some success, and buying in for as little as possible will certainly maximize your ROI, no doubt the biggest long term winners in re-buy tournaments are the ones who employ an aggressive (tight or loose) style during the re-buy period and are willing to double re-buy as many times as they bust.              
    Everyone knows that NL tournaments favor aggression, and the re-buy period amplifies the advantage aggressive players enjoy. 
     The re-buy period is good for establishing a loose-aggressive or fearless image, but the advantages carry over past the first hour. After the dust settles on the rebuy period and players can't buy any more chips, the table dynamics are much better defined: there are short and big stacks, the rocks and the maniacs have been identified, and there are players on tilt, muttering about how much they hate rebuys. You will usually have a sharper sense of how your opponents view you, too. With more information and familiarity, you are able to make better decisions.
    The flip side to this situation is the blackhole of the rebuy period, also known as Rebuy Tilt. There are different causes of this, but in every case you will take too many close gambles, calling off your chips with junk hands hoping to suckout, or making big plays without realizing your opponents have adjusted and probably have the best of it. Top pros have thrown away plenty of great stacks (in addition to cold-hard cash) while caught up in Rebuy Tilt.  Often, an average buyin (somewhere around 5-6x in the $100 rebuy on Stars and probably much higher in the lower limits) is probably a little bit higher than it needs to be. Although there are some great players, live and online, who have gone off on severe Rebuy Tilt and still show a positive expectation, it's really nothing more than a leak.
    That being said, you have to be prepared to take the risks and fire the bullets that ultimately win tournaments.
    Remember the importance of keeping your focus when times are tough in a tournament. Maintaining clarity after tough breaks is a crucial trait for any poker game. But when things are going badly in the re-buy period, it's important to remember the tournament is still just beginning. No matter how much you are over-invested or how few chips you have, re-buys were your salvation and you're still in better shape than the people who weren't willing to spend more than one buy-in and are now on their way home.
    In any non-satellite MTT, the money is heavily weighted in the top three spots. Given this information, your goal - always - should be to finish in the top three of each tourney you play. In a re-buy tournament, it's common to lose 25% of the field by the end of the re-buy period. This mass attrition rate can be viewed as being similar to a freezeout where 25% of the field did not show, but were still kind of enough to subsidize the prize pool.
    From a numbers perspective, the significant decrease in field size greatly enhances your chances of placing top three or winning the event. From a value perspective, the subsidized payouts coupled with the decreased field size give you a greater percentage of equity in the prize pool.
    In terms of play, good players can gain significant advantages in re-buy tournaments, advantages that are not available in freezeouts.
    Firstly, no matter how short you are after the re-buy period, the blinds relatively small.  Usually, you will  have enough chips where your M is not in jeopardy of falling into the red zone. This basically creates a deep stack tourney that allows you to be selective and pick your spots, whereas in a freezeout with a normal structure, failing to win any significant pots in the first hour usually means forcing a push in the second hour.
   Secondly, many players simply have difficulty switching gears to a normal tournament setting once the re-buy period has concluded. This creates many loose calls and ill-advised raises that are exploitable by good players.
    Thirdly, re-buy tourneys create vastly disproportionate stack sizes at the tables. Many times, this phenomena results in two different situations that can be preyed upon by good players: Stack Ego and Stack Envy
    Stack Ego occurs when a player accumulates a huge amount of chips during the re-buy period and feels duty-bound to bully the table and keep his name atop the leaderboard without dropping in position. This flawed sense of duty and expectation, coupled with the fact many of these individuals do not normally play big stack poker, make them prime candidates for you to double through.
    Stack Envy occurs when the smaller stacks tend to place excessive emphasis on the sizes of the other stacks at the table. Many times these smaller stacks will prematurely push/call pre-flop or fail to find the fold button post-flop, due to the fact they feel the need to "catch up." These tendencies make chip accumulation much easier for a good player.
 
    Re-buys are oddly enough excellent opportunities for TAGs, who are often so limited by the typical starting stack online of 1500 chips.  Suffer a bad beat, shrug it off and re-buy. 
    Set a limit - before the tournament - of how many re-buys you are willing to invest.  More than one or two, probably less than a dozen.
Posted: Thursday, October 15, 2009 - 1 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]
Category: Other

    Luck is always gonna break even.  Everybody in the whole world is gonna get the same amount of luck. - Puggy Pearson
 
Are you feeling lucky?
 
    First of all, I suspect most folks commonly do not understand the concept of luck.  You must realize - as a living human being -  each of us experiences luck of one sort or another every single day. Often, many, many times.
    Let me emphasize, living human beings.  Deceased humans have already run out of luck.
    Not to be indelicate, but just let's suppose your own personal lucky streak began when a certain spermatozoa of your father crashed into a certain ovum of your mother.
 
    There are two kinds of luck, good and bad. 
    If all you experience is bad luck, you are still lucky.
    My dictionary agrees.  Luck is defined as "chance, thought of as a force that brings either good or bad fortune." 
    An alternate definition is "the events, etc. (either favorable or unfavorable to one's interests) that it brings."     
 
    And luck ebbs and flows, does it not??  You can be ahead pre-flop... behind on the flop... then somehow manage to emerge victorious on the river. 
    By the way, you will invariably hear complaints from a weaker hand which flopped good, then lost on a later card.  Something to keep in mind - LIFE LESSON - you don't get paid in the middle of the hand.  It doesn't matter where you are in the middle but where you stand at the end.
 
    I was reminded of this ebb and flow by a story I saw recently in the St. Petersburg Times (Florida.)  A reasonably handsome Caucasian male American (2-4xGoodLuck) is drunk (no luck involved perhaps) and hurt (maybe 1xBadLuck.) 
    Somebody sees him (1xGL) and calls 911 (1xGL.) 
    Emergency Services is told the victim is near (1xGL) the fire station. 
    Two rescuers (socialism??) open the garage bay doors, turn on the emergency lights and pull out of the fire station. 
    And run over the guy (1xBadLuck, minimum) they were sent to rescue in their 10-ton (1xBL) truck.
    Apparently, nobody thought to explain just how nearby was the victim.  That is real, real lucky.
    But not good.
 
    Two days later authorities were still trying to figure out how that homeless drunk came to be so lucky.
    "There's just so many variables that were involved," explained the assistant fire chief, "that any other combination would not have resulted in what occurred."
    Isn't that just another way of saying LUCK?
    Turns out this particular station has multiple buildings with three separate addresses.  The complex has nine different garage bays facing two different streets.  So, the victim was about 8-1 not to get hit by an exiting rescue vehicle.
    He's as likely to get runover as you are to hit a set on the river. 
    If you only play one hand all day.
    Let's call the victim Ten Allen Lenox.  Because that's his name. 
    Ten Allen Lenox survived, though he's still not feeling too perky.
 
    To add insult to injury, police actually took the trouble - how does it matter? - to administer a blood-alcohol test to Ten.  Turns out he blew - painfully, I'm guessing - 0.46.  Nearly six times the 0.08 level at which a driver is considered legally impaired.   
 
    Lucky for him he wasn't driving.

 
Posted: Sunday, October 11, 2009 - 6 comment(s) [ Comment ] - 0 trackback(s) [ Trackback ]
Category: Other
DOES THIS CHIP STACK MAKE MY BUTT LOOK BIG???  by Jack Dog Welch
 
 
"In the end, if you are still just doing it, you win." - Laird Hamilton
 
    Like many poker players, I first played seriously in college.  I began to believe I was one of the best poker players ever to sit down at a card table.  I crushed the dorm game - crushed it! - pulling down maybe as much as 40 or 50 dollars a week.  Seriously.  That was a helpful sum, some 45 years ago.  In fact, I played poker and bridge so seriously, I flunked out of school.
    My father was not happy.  He offered me a choice.  I could deal with his - not inexplicable - wrath or I could serve my country...starting tomorrow.  He was not bluffing.  I figured my odds were better against the Viet Cong.  Talk about your prop bets.
    Dad, it must be said, was an excellent poker player.  Mother tells about the time she found a piece of property upon which to build her dream home.  The site was so choice, a bidding war was about to erupt.  If she could come up with an unlikely large amount of cash immediately, she could swing the deal.  "I might be able to help," Dad said.  From his sock drawer, he pulled a roll of bills, approximating his pre-tax annual income.  The next day we owned a half-acre field atop a hill.
    I joined the U.S. Air Force because the Marine recruiter was out to lunch.
    Oh, the irony.  Having flunked out of college due primarily to a lack of interest in higher education, I soon found myself in Monterrey, California, at the Defense Language Institute.  Assigned to a year-long study of the Czech and Slovak languages. Forty hours of classes weekly, with no option whatsoever of quitting.  Failing grades doubtlessly meant a direct flight to Cam Ranh Bay.
    At DLI, all governmental agencies studied, even the FBI.  Virtually every language around the globe was taught.  Including Vietnamese. 
    We used to joke about the two-week course given to combat troops on their way to the Far East.  What could they be teaching you?  "Hello."  "Goodbye." "Drop your weapons."  "Raise your hands."  "Surrender or die." "I'll have another beer, please."  "I love you." 
    I still remember how to say "kiss my butt" in Czechoslovakian.
    Of course, we played poker.  We played a lot of poker.  Hour after hour after hour of poker.  In those days, the games were mostly 7-card stud and 5-card draw.  Dealer's choice, with the occasional wild card, like one-eyed jacks and suicide kings.  Stakes varied, usually depending upon how close - or how far - from pay day the game was played. 
    Games got tougher as the pay period went on.  Think of the month as one big MTT, towards the third weekend, most of the weaker players had surrendered their bankrolls. By the end of the month, each barracks was basically spreading a short-handed sit-and-go.            The better players had the option of moving up to face higher "ranked" competition.  By ranked, I don't mean the PLB.  The sargeants had their games, the officer corps had their games, too.  The weakest games were among the junior officers, the second lieutenants.  Sooner than later, I got my ass kicked.  And kicked.  And kicked.  And kicked.  I began to believe I was one of the worst poker players ever to sit down at a card table.
    I got beat so bad, I decided poker was not the game for me.  I stopped playing.
    Fast forward a few decades.  I cannot precisely place the blame on Chris Moneymaker.  But I did read the best-selling Play Poker Like the Pros by Phil Hellmuth.  In the book, Mr. Hellmuth graciously recommended playing on UltimateBet.com.  So, I signed up.  (After all, the Poker Brat had been voted "Best Poker Tournament Player in the World" in 1997.) 
    I deposited $50, which was lost almost before I figured out what buttons to click. Just like in the military.  Apparently, years away from the tables had not improved my poker skills. 
    So - what the hell - what did I have to lose?  I began to play... gulp... play money games.
    Slowly, and then ever more rapidly, I begin to win.  And win.  And win.  Just like in college.  Before long I was playing 1000-2000 NLH with a BR beyond 3 million.  I had my mojo back.
    If you ever have a choice, do not marry a crazy person.  My wife wanted me to cash in.  When I explained it was not real money, she refused to believe I was even playing poker.
    After the divorce, I began to play again for real.  I managed to get small deposits on a half-dozen sites.  And while I study and study and play and play, I am barely a break-even player.  I simply cannot manage the win which allow me to move ahead.
    Oh, I did have a big win some months back.  A huge win.  I finished first in a 12,000 player MTT on PokerStars.  There is something very rewarding about sitting alone at a final table with a stack of 18,000,000 chips. I was still admiring my stack when they closed the table.
    Unfortunately, the event was a freeroll, which merely served to allow me entry into a future tournament.  I placed 36th of 3391 entrants in that MTT.  I was feeling pretty good about myself.  Back-to-back Jack.
    This was about the same time I began to understand the ups and downs of my youthful poker "career."  College, where I was a big winner, was small, private, expensive, church-affiliated.  Those kids had no idea how to play poker.  None whatsoever.  The Language Institute, where I was a big loser, was populated with country boys and city slickers, who actually knew how to play the game.  Some of them might not have even cheated.  They were that good.
    My own skills, to use the term loosely, never changed.  I was bad when I won, I was bad when I lost.  My game remained the same, while the results depended upon my opponents' skills and the fall of the cards.
    Today, I improve incrementally, glacially. Seems everybody who survives online improves, too.  So, gradual improvement almost seems -EV.  To be successful, we must get better faster.  We must be open to new ideas.
    As winners, we must realize we might not be as good as we think we are. 
    As losers, we have to understand why we lose. 
    And when we do win, we have to make sure the victory is worth achieving.
 
 
  Those who can, do.  Those who can't, well, we quite often write articles trying to figure out how.