June 20, 2011 9:03:12 PM EDT
Because they're only going to hit the flop 1 in every 8.5 times? You're saying that narrowing the field helps prevent a rather unlikely scenario, when I'm saying that it helps the original raiser, who we're worried about more than anyone who's yet to act, get the money in. 3-betting just seems real leaky here without reads, and we should be accounting for what is most likely to be a problem for us in this hand.
Think of it this way. What are the chances that UTG raised? 100%, because they already did. What are the chances that someone behind you calls and flops a set when you flop top pair or, worse yet, top two pair? Probably something like 1% overall, and even if you were guaranteed to go multiway against an overcaller with a pocket pair, you're going to get a real bad flop against them less than 5% of the time.
With that said, I'm making my preflop decision here with the original raiser in mind. And what I have in mind regarding the original raiser is that they've opened UTG in Rush, so that's why I call. If UTG had a wide opening range from that position or stacks off light, then yes, we would like to narrow the field with a 3-bet. As far as we know, though, that's not the case, and so it's fundamentally solid to flat.
This post was edited by Troy M at June 20, 2011 9:03:12 PM EDT